November 11, 2025
Join us for the first webinar in our Unlocking Growth Series, “Using Data to Reduce Churn and Strengthen Memberships” for a deep dive into how DRB’s data intelligence helps car wash operators reduce churn and optimize memberships. We’ll explore the signals that matter, the tools you can use today, and what’s coming next in 2026 to help you build more resilient, profitable customer relationships. What You’ll Learn:
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How to identify and act on early churn signals
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Tools to track membership health and retention trends
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Strategies to grow and optimize your plan mix
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What’s next in predictive churn and membership analytics
Transcript
Mandy
Welcome, everyone, to Unlocking Growth with Data. Today, we're going to be talking about using data to reduce churn and strengthen memberships. I'm Mandy, Director of Product Management at DRB, and I'm joined by Jocelyn, who's our lead data analyst. Today, we're going to talk about how operators can take actions that protect recurring revenue and grow member value.
Jocelyn
We'll show you what the data is telling us about membership health across the industry and how those insights connect to tools inside Patheon+ to help you intervene earlier and grow faster.
Mandy
A quick deeper introduction: I work on a team that drives product strategy for Patheon+, which is DRB’s engagement ecosystem. This includes the point-of-sale platform Patheon, Catalyst for marketing automation, Beacon as the mobile app offering, EWA for e-commerce presence, and data, which is where I get to focus most. The goal is to empower operators with actionable insights so they can make smarter, faster, and more aligned business decisions to support growth.
Jocelyn
I'm Jocelyn. I’m the lead data analyst within DRB, and my team focuses on car wash site performance. We analyze data to understand how sites are performing across the industry, tracking a wide range of data points from multiple DRB product lines. That information is transformed into actionable insights and advice. We benchmark churn, monitor plan health, and identify leading indicators that can predict churn or retention outcomes, along with many other performance metrics.
Mandy
Let’s dive right in. In today’s world, platforms, tools, and capabilities generate an enormous amount of data. The challenge now isn’t about collecting more tools or adding more disconnected data sources, though helpful tools are always welcome. The real opportunity is to unify that data and use it to make better business decisions, strengthen connections with consumers, and present your brand with a clear understanding of who you’re targeting, who you want to resonate with, and how to align with their perception of value. Today, we’ll look at industry data on churn, retention, and membership growth. We’ll explore how to leverage this data to identify trends early by listening to signals before they fully emerge and define what “health” means from a membership and retention perspective. We’ll also share strategies that other clients have used to grow and optimize membership, discuss what a strong membership mix looks like, and touch on some ideas we’re exploring internally around predictive insights for churn and ways to optimize data for business growth.
Jocelyn
It’s important to keep an eye on the industry as well. According to the ICA’s Q3 Pulse Report, “Operators today are navigating a really interesting landscape, even with inflationary pressure and shifting consumer confidence. Subscription programs are one of the few categories still showing strong, stable performance.” What this means is that despite economic uncertainty and inflation, consumer demand for subscriptions remains steady. We’re continuing to see membership growth and relatively low churn across the industry, which is a positive sign for operators focused on building and maintaining subscription programs.
Mandy
Yeah, that's a really interesting takeaway, too, if we think about what that means for our industry, right? Sounds like consumers are still looking for ways to spend their money, and they're still bought into the value of subscriptions. That’s great news for us, but it also means that as operators, you need to figure out how to connect with customers and consistently demonstrate why your brand delivers the most value and ultimately earn their choice. The key is using data to differentiate. Operators today have access to a wealth of data, but the real opportunity lies in connecting and activating that data in the most impactful way.
When we talk about Patheon+, it was intentionally built around capturing data by design. So, what that means is we made a consistent effort to ensure that every interaction across the Patheon+ ecosystem ultimately contributes to a data foundation that gives operators visibility and the ability to act quickly. We're all about emphasizing actionable intelligence over just reporting visibility. And today, we're going to look at how data can help solve some of the biggest challenges operators face, which are reducing churn and growing memberships. We're also going to look at how those concepts and those themes are evolving as we move into 2026 and beyond.
Let’s start with churn. It’s a critical metric when evaluating P&L, financial growth, and forecasting consistent revenue. However, it’s equally important to consider what churn means from an actionable standpoint, particularly in today’s economic climate.
Jocelyn
Absolutely. Churn is one of the strongest indicators of how customers perceive your brand's value and their experience with your brand. Information around Churn can help you focus your efforts on growing and improving your business. And then on the flip side, we're also going to look at member retention. Long-term retention is what creates that loyal membership base that you want to grow on your site. And we consider these high-value members. They're the group that defines your long-term stability within your revenue.
Mandy
When we look at what member renewal uncertainty means coming out of last quarter, ICA Pulse’s latest research shows that, at any given time, only about 3% of members are certain they want to cancel, while 8% remain undecided.
Jocelyn
And really, that just means that the vast majority of churn risk is influenceable. You can influence it through better engagement, better communication with your clients, and adjusting the experience they receive at your site.
Mandy
Let's check out what the Car Wash ICA pulse has shared with us around subscription growth trends over time and what those mean.
Jocelyn
All right, so this does come from the ICA Pulse Report. When I look at this chart, starting at the bottom, the lowest trend on that line shows clients who reported membership loss over those periods of time. If we look at Q3, which just ended, only 2 % of these reporting clients reported a decline in their membership. Moving upwards, 33 % are flat or remain consistent in their membership numbers, but 65 % of the industry reported membership growth. So, overall, the industry continues to expand its membership base. Even some markets are seeing saturation. There is some uncertainty, but we're still growing, which means consumers are finally starting to truly understand the value of having a car wash membership. It’s very important to foster a good relationship with your customers, because they want to spend their money to wash their cars; you need to make sure it's with you.
Mandy
That’s encouraging data. As we know, growth alone isn’t always a clear indicator of overall health, we need to look at net growth, factoring in how much we’re adding versus how much we’re losing through churn over time.
So, let’s review some of these metrics in isolation to understand what we’re seeing at DRB from an industry perspective. Then, we’ll dive deeper into the drivers of churn and explore whether those factors can be influenced through better levers, such as improved communication with customers and other strategic actions.
Jocelyn
This renewal trend chart shows the average member numbers per site per month from our representative sample of the industry. At the start of 2025, our average number of members per site was around 2,600. We see growth through the spring and summer, as is absolutely expected, but that growth is up to March. Fantastic, we're seeing upwards of 2,800 members. That is fantastic. We are starting to notice that end-of-year drop as we move into the colder part of the year. That's absolutely expected. But even with that slight drop, we're still seeing a net 6.6 % growth across the industry, on average. This does track well with those ICA numbers. It shows continued member base growth across the majority of sites.
Mandy
Yeah, this is really cool to see. I think, you know, it would be really powerful to connect some of these fluctuations that we're seeing back to behaviors. So, when do customers feel really engaged, and we see spikes in the data, versus when they're feeling like they want to churn out? This is where predictive churn analytics can really help isolate some of those moments of risk or opportunity and help us lean in either way. In my opinion, the more factors we can apply to this (seasonality, competitor perspective, the industry as a whole, economically, and consumer confidence), the richer and more informed our insights will be. For those who didn’t convert, didn’t renew, or churned out, the key question is: which of those driving factors are influenceable? And what should we anchor on when considering what average churn looks like across the industry?
We know the goal isn’t to eliminate cancellations entirely; that’s unrealistic. Instead, we need to understand what healthy churn looks like, benchmarked against industry norms over time.
Let’s dig into that and explore what’s expected versus what we can actively improve.
Jocelyn
When we talk about churn internally, we break it into two categories: voluntary and involuntary.
Voluntary churn occurs when a customer actively chooses to cancel, typically due to value or experience issues. Some factors, like customers moving out of the area, are unavoidable. But experience and value concerns can be addressed operationally, making this category highly actionable. Across our industry sample, voluntary churn averages about 4.1%.
Involuntary churn happens when memberships lapse due to payment failures—expired cards, declined transactions, or similar issues. These aren’t active customer decisions and can often be mitigated through proactive outreach, status notifications, or software solutions that help process payments. Involuntary churn averages about 3.6%.
Typically, voluntary churn is higher than involuntary. My rule of thumb: major concern arises if either exceeds 5%. However, even if you’re at the averages (4.1% and 3.6%), there’s still room for improvement—absolutely opportunities to reduce churn.
Mandy
That’s valuable insight into where the industry currently stands. With scale, even small improvements matter; just a percentage change in either direction can translate into thousands of dollars in lost revenue or, conversely, saved revenue if we make positive progress.
Jocelyn
Exactly. If we apply these numbers—say, 2,700 members versus an industry average of 2,799—that gap represents roughly $5,700 in potential revenue lost due to churn. Any portion of that we can recover is saved revenue, and it’s completely quantifiable.
Mandy
That’s exactly right. The real opportunity now is to treat churn as a measurable process, not a mystery we only analyze retroactively. While historical patterns are useful, the goal isn’t to eliminate every cancellation—it’s to understand why they happen and strengthen the aspects of our business that keep customers loyal.
With Patheon data combined, we’ve heard from customers and operators that they’re shifting from a reactive approach to a proactive strategy, even getting ahead of churn before it occurs.
Jocelyn, since you work closely with operators every day, what do industry analytics point to as the top drivers of churn we’re seeing today?
Jocelyn
All right, so we've grouped our churn drivers into five main groups. There may be other underlying causes, but for the most part, we've classified these into these five distinct groups, starting with customer experience and dissatisfaction. So, if the customer goes in and they're not getting wash quality, their car's not getting clean, or they're having a poor experience with the service at the wash or did not meet their expectations. Whatever that experience situation may be, the way you might see that demonstrated is a rise in rewashes. If customers come in more frequently for rewashes, it could indicate an issue in the tunnel. Likewise, a steady stream of negative reviews is a clear warning sign that something isn’t right. These signals shouldn’t be ignored—they’re opportunities to act. Take a hard look at the customer experience at your site and consider secret shopping to uncover what’s really happening. Dive deep into every touchpoint, because every visit shapes loyalty. Identifying problems early allows you to turn potential churn into confidence and strengthen the relationship customers have with your brand.
Mandy
The ICA Pulse survey revealed some compelling insights into what drives loyalty in the car wash industry. When asked what keeps customers coming back to a particular brand, 88% cited car wash quality and 71% pointed to staff friendliness as top factors. On the flip side, dissatisfaction often stems from the vehicle not being fully cleaned; 31% of respondents identified this as the leading reason for poor experience. These stats reinforce the importance of delivering consistent quality and exceptional service.
Jocelyn
Another major factor impacting retention is increased competition, especially in saturated markets. As new players enter, retail traffic can decline, and repeat visits drop. The key to combating this is proactive loyalty-building, ensuring your base remains committed to your brand, whether they’re members or retail customers. Strong loyalty programs and superior service can help you stay ahead, even when competition intensifies.
Mandy
Here’s a key insight: 69% of consumers say they plan to wash their cars just as often despite inflation. This shows there’s still strong demand in the market, even in a challenging economy. The takeaway? Competition will rise, and it’s up to operators and brand managers to make sure customers choose your brand over others.
Jocelyn
This ties directly into pricing, but it’s not just about the price point. It’s about perceived value. If customers don’t feel they’re getting what they pay for, churn can happen even without a price increase. Watch for warning signs like customers downgrading to lower-tier packages or ticket averages dropping. Another red flag: higher churn among members in premium or mid-tier plans compared to lower-tier plans. These indicators suggest a gap in perceived value that needs to be addressed before it impacts loyalty.
Mandy
The ICA Pulse survey revealed a clear value gap between members and retail customers. Among respondents who reported being very satisfied with their car wash experience, 61% were members, while the rest were not. This makes sense; members understand the value of what they’ve signed up for, which is why they converted. But it also highlights an opportunity: marketing to retail customers who haven’t yet converted. Strengthening that message can help move more customers into membership and increase loyalty.
Jocelyn
On the flip side of churn, we also need to address involuntary churn, which often comes from unsuccessful recharges, failed payment reloads, or expired cards that aren’t updated. The question becomes: how are customers interacting with their membership? Are they able to manage it easily? Are we communicating clearly about payment status, or is it a surprise when service stops? Improving these processes and communication can significantly reduce involuntary churn and protect recurring revenue.
Mandy
Industry data shows involuntary churn averages around 3.6%, but there’s good news: operators using Patheon’s updated tools have seen measurable improvements. Features like transactional messages that proactively notify customers about expiring cards, streamlined card update processes, and enhanced cloud-based payment handling make a big difference. By leveraging flexible configurations for retry periods and grace periods, operators are reducing failed payments and retaining more members. These proactive steps are turning what was once a silent revenue leak into a controllable, measurable process, and we’ll share some positive results later in the session.
Jocelyn
Absolutely right! Promotional strategy plays a major role in churn. Any promotion will attract price-sensitive customers, and the deeper the discount, the higher the churn risk when full pricing resumes, often due to sticker shock. That’s why timing and discount levels matter. Some operators run consistent promotions, while others space them strategically throughout the year.
The cohort charts here illustrate the impact. With a consistent promotion, like $9.99 for the first month, retention drops sharply after the first recharge, with churn rates hitting 22% by month two. This pattern often reflects “promo hopping,” where customers sign up for the deal and leave immediately after. Revenue also suffers early due to heavy discounts.
By contrast, a strategic promotion, such as “3 for $30” over three months, shows stronger retention and steadier revenue. Customers stay longer, and once full pricing kicks in, revenue climbs significantly because more members remain active. While both approaches can work, understanding how your customers respond to each strategy is critical. Digging into these patterns helps you design promotions that drive growth without sacrificing long-term loyalty.
Mandy
That's cool. Thanks, Jocelyn, for sharing this. Discounts and promotions are powerful levers to bring customers in the door, but keeping them is all about going back to basics. The ICA Pulse data reinforces this: wash quality and staff friendliness remain the top loyalty drivers. So, while promotions can boost sign-ups, long-term retention depends on delivering an exceptional experience every time.
Patheon provides tools that help operators identify and address quality issues proactively. For example, tracking rewash reasons, such as equipment malfunctions, poor wash quality, or customer service concerns, can uncover patterns and highlight training opportunities. Operators can even drill down by package type or employee behavior to pinpoint where improvements are needed. These insights turn data into action, helping you strengthen the fundamentals that keep customers loyal.
Jocelyn
Definitely. This really takes retention and quality out of the realm of guesswork. Setting it up this way means you’re not relying on assumptions; you’re gaining clear insight into how customers are responding. It allows you to quantify the impact of factors like prep quality, wash consistency, and employee interactions on the loyalty of your membership group. Instead of guessing, you can see exactly how these elements influence retention and make data-driven decisions to improve the experience.
Mandy
Right. And then another thing is, Rewashes aren’t the only indicator of quality issues; they’re just one lens. Another signal is when members run cars through multiple times in quick succession. While it could mean they love your wash, it’s more likely they’re not getting the clean they expected. This is valuable data to track and analyze.
Jocelyn
Beyond identifying issues, segment analytics in Patheon allow you to turn insights into action. You can create segments for recent sign-ups or members with low redemption rates and target them with personalized offers. For example, reward new members with a special perk or re-engage low-usage members through email, text, or in-wash incentives. These “customer delighters” reinforce value, strengthen loyalty, and remind members that your brand sees them as partners, not just customers.
Segment analytics help pinpoint customer behavior, and Patheon makes it easy to turn those insights into action through customer delighters. You can create segments for recent sign-ups or members with low redemption rates and target them with personalized offers. For example, reward new members with an in-wash perk or re-engage low-usage members through email or text campaigns. These small gestures reinforce value, strengthen loyalty, and remind customers that your brand sees them as partners, not just transactions.
Mandy
Segments in Patheon provide a powerful lens into your customer database, allowing you to target specific behaviors and create personalized experiences. For example, you can pull all customers with an email who redeemed a plan in the last 30 days and reward them with a simple gesture—like a personalized thank-you during their next visit—or a targeted offer via email or text. These small touches matter because, as the data shows, wash quality and staff friendliness are top loyalty drivers. Segments help you act on that insight and strengthen customer relationships.
Patheon Insights also delivers out-of-the-box analytics that tell a clear story around retention. You can track how long customers stay on plans, compare performance across plan types, and even evaluate the impact of promotions or employee interactions on retention. This unbiased view helps operators identify what’s working and where improvements are needed. Looking ahead, we’re excited to layer in predictive elements, giving operators the ability to forecast retention outcomes before launching a promo, turning guesswork into strategy.
Finally, plan usage charts provide visibility into redemption patterns. Are members visiting regularly, or are they underutilizing their plans? Low usage might look profitable in the short term, but it’s often a churn risk. These insights empower operators to take proactive steps, whether through engagement campaigns or value reinforcement, to keep customers loyal. Combined with Patheon+ capabilities like transactional messaging, flexible pricing, and cloud-based payment tools, operators have everything they need to optimize performance and reduce churn. And the proof is in the data. We’ll share real results from customers who’ve transitioned from SiteWatch to Patheon and the impact on their key metrics.
Jocelyn
This analysis was eye-opening for our team. We compared sites that transitioned from SiteWatch to Patheon against those that stayed on SiteWatch, measuring performance across key KPIs. The results were statistically significant across every metric that Patheon influences, and neutral where it doesn’t, like total car count (since POS systems don’t drive traffic).
Here’s what stood out:
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Membership growth: Over 10% increase for sites that switched to Patheon.
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Churn reduction: Drops in both voluntary and involuntary churn.
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Member revenue growth: Up 21%, driven by higher retention and new sign-ups.
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Total revenue growth: About 14% overall, even accounting for a slight dip in retail volume, a natural trade-off when membership expands.
These numbers speak for themselves. The improvements in growth, retention, and revenue make it clear: Patheon isn’t just a POS system; it’s a strategic advantage. This analysis confirmed for us that Patheon is exactly where this industry needs to be.
Mandy
Yeah, that's wonderful. These metrics clearly demonstrate that integrated data visibility, combined with the other levers and capabilities we discussed earlier, translates into real revenue stability and growth. It’s exciting to see these results, and we’re looking forward to continued conversions and sustained growth across the board.
Jocelyn
These metrics clearly demonstrate that integrated data visibility, combined with the other levers and capabilities we discussed earlier, translates into real revenue stability and growth. It’s exciting to see these results, and we’re looking forward to continued conversions and sustained growth across the board.
Mandy
This isn’t just something we’re saying internally. We see it reflected in customer feedback and industry data, and the Pulse ICA consumer survey reinforces the same point. As a quick refresher, when consumers were asked what keeps them coming back to a particular car wash, 88% cited wash quality, 71% mentioned staff friendliness and overall experience, and 42% pointed to price and perceived value as top drivers. Since this was a multi-select survey, the numbers are high, but they clearly show what customers perceive as the biggest factors for value and loyalty. Other reasons that ranked lower include speed of service, cleanliness and upkeep of the site, digital technology features, promotions, and environmental or community practices. Consumers are looking for a well-rounded, strong brand that focuses on delivering a great experience while maintaining a positive presence in the industry and contributing to the community. It’s an interesting perspective and worth keeping in mind.
Now that we’ve covered churn, retention, industry trends, and some tools and tips from Patheon+, let’s shift to growth. Specifically, what does it mean to build a balanced, profitable membership base, and what does “healthy” look like in today’s climate? If we can get some insight on that from experience working with customers, that would be great.
Jocelyn
Absolutely! When we talk about health at a site, the goal is to maintain a balance between membership groups and retail customers. Prepaid is part of the mix, but it’s typically a small portion for most operators, so the focus is on membership and retail. Membership is important because it provides stable, predictable revenue year-round, which is great. But as membership grows, it can start to eat into the retail base. For long-term health, the ideal ratio is about 75% of cars coming through as membership redemptions and 25% as retail. This balance gives predictability while keeping enough retail inflow to convert into future members. If membership is only around 50%, that means half of the washes are retail customers, which is a huge opportunity to grow membership through promotions, marketing, and other strategies. On the other hand, if membership is at 80%, retail is down to 20%, and growth will stagnate because there aren’t enough retail customers left to convert. In that case, the focus should shift to bringing in new retail traffic. If you’re at the sweet spot of 75/25, keep working on both, bring in retail, and sign up members because you haven’t hit the ceiling yet. Always know where you stand and adjust your energy accordingly to keep the business growing.
Mandy
That’s a really insightful takeaway. When it comes to marketing energy, another great way to monitor what’s happening at your site in terms of conversions is through opportunity and conversion analysis. By focusing on the trends we’re seeing there, it becomes another lever to better align sales and marketing efforts. Here’s a sneak peek at what’s coming next from the Patheon Insights. This tool will help visualize the total market opportunity over time and use that data for training and planning, showing which times are best and where to focus marketing and sales tactics. For example, you’ll be able to see peak hours when conversions are highest, identify slower hours, and track performance over time. In this snapshot for September, you can see the top capture rate, and below that, opportunities overlaid with actual conversions. This gives a clear picture of how much potential is being captured and where there’s room to improve. It’s a powerful way to spot trends and decide where to direct attention for maximum impact.
Jocelyn
This acts as a bridge between operations and marketing, showing where focused efforts can deliver real conversion lift. The data shown here is sample data, but if I were an operator looking at this graph, I’d start by noting peak traffic times. There’s a morning rush with commuters, a midday bump around lunch, and then a significant wave from 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. That covers evening commuters and after-school pickup, which could indicate the site is near a school. That insight could lead to an after-school special for retail customers or a membership offer targeting that demographic. Looking at capture percentages during peak times, they appear relatively consistent, which suggests visitors are satisfied and willing to join as members, a great sign. If there were a time period with lower conversion, that would be an opportunity to act, whether through retraining customer service attendants or tailoring marketing to the demographic visiting at that time. There’s a lot of potential to turn operational insights into targeted marketing strategies.
Mandy
As mentioned, this is demo data, so what you see for peak hours and on the graph is just a quick visual for illustration. Over time, once this feature is fully released, it will be exciting to view trends at a monthly or yearly level. That kind of visibility will make it easier to identify where marketing and sales efforts should be focused, just like we discussed earlier. These examples reinforce how critical retention and growth are, and on the Patheon+ side, we’re continuing to invest in tools, technology, and analytics to help customers improve in these areas. At the same time, it’s important to remember that the full customer journey matters just as much and deserves attention and investment.
Jocelyn
Absolutely. Think of the customer journey as a continuous loop. It starts when a customer comes in for a car wash. From there, they may decide to join as a member, which is fantastic. During their time as a member, they use their membership and interact with the brand. Eventually, that journey ends when the customer churns, and as we’ve discussed, there are many reasons that can happen. But then the loop begins again—the next time they need a car wash and encounter your brand, they come back in, and that’s the opportunity to bring them back into the full journey with you.
Mandy
From a system perspective, the goal is to make every touchpoint with consumers intentional and measurable, powered by insights across Patheon+. That includes Beacon for mobile app engagement, any e-commerce presence, point-of-sale interactions, and actual site visits. The full customer engagement journey matters, from initial brand awareness to on-site or digital interactions, marketing efforts, repeat visits, conversion, and retention. All of that is part of the ecosystem we aim to support. We’re excited to share more about other elements of that journey in future sessions. With the holidays approaching, we’re working with many customers to optimize promotions, pricing strategies, and attract consumers by aligning with seasonal spending trends. We’ll be back early next year with another webinar focused on retail trends and promotions, so stay tuned. Thank you for joining us as we explored churn, retention, and membership growth through data. We look forward to continuing the Unlocking Growth with Data series and wish everyone a happy and safe holiday season.
Jocelyn
Thank you so much.
